Another excerpt from Peter Zeihan's 2015 book
The Accidental Superpower:
The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disaster
Chapter 10 : Players (Pages 329 - 345)
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“The most effective use of its time would be to attempt to reanchor in as many of Central Eurasia’s border regions as possible, allowing #Russia to concentrate forces in the Hordelands’ access points. Success would doom Russia to a slow-motion demographic disintegration from within. Failure would leave Russia open to hostile forces along all of its borders while it is disintegrating from within. The first is a recipe for death over several decades. The second is a recipe for death over one or two.
It is extremely likely that Russia lacks the strength to plug all of the gaps in its frontier, so it will have to prioritize. Here is the order I see Russia acting to attempt to preserve its existence.
Russia’s single largest concern is Ukraine.
• Ukraine occupies the single most productive portion of the Russian wheat belt (the area farthest south and with the most reliable rainfall). As Russia’s manpower and capital shortages mount, maintaining a grip on the lowest-input, highest-output lands will become of increasing importance.
• Together with Moldova, Ukraine commands the Bessarabian Gap. Control of the gap would limit the ability of a resurgent Turkey (see below) to threaten Russia’s core territories.
• Ukraine holds the largest population of ethnic Russians outside of Russia (true even if one considers the Crimea part of Russia and not part of Ukraine). Their numerical inclusion into the Russian system would delay twilight a few more years.
“Eastern Ukraine’s industrial base is directly adjacent to Russia’s. Combining them would assist all portions of the Russian economy to last a bit longer.
• Ukrainian infrastructure transports nearly half of Russia’s oil and natural gas exports to Europe, making Ukraine an energy tool whose political leverage is nearly as valuable as its financial income.
• The Ukrainian border is only three hundred miles of wide-open flatlands from Moscow, making Ukraine—at a minimum—valuable as a buffer.
• The only truly navigable river of the former Soviet Union, the Dnieper, flows through Ukrainian territory, flows south, and allows Ukraine to integrate economically with the lands of the Black Sea, the Sea of Marmara, and the world beyond. The river not only makes Ukraine the most potentially capital-rich portion of the Hordelands, it also makes it the only portion that can perhaps seek a destiny independent of Moscow. Russia dare not let that happen.”
Excerpt From: Peter Zeihan. “The Accidental Superpower.”
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