Russia's Challenges in the Ukraine War
by Peter Zeihan on April 29, 2022
Russia and its military have lagged considerably behind the Ukrainians in several categories: logistics, communications, and especially in metabolizing and deploying new technology, such as drones.
It is especially in this latter instance where #Kyiv has shown a remarkable nimbleness over Moscow.
But the battle is now shifting to an artillery tit-for-tat in eastern Ukraine, where Stingers and short-range drones will be less useful for the Ukrainians.
It is also exactly the kind of battle that the Russians have trained for, and is why I believe my overall assessment will still hold: that the Russians will ultimately overrun the Ukrainians, especially as the conflict moves past May.
Russia's lagging technological prowess has several historical analogues.
One of the best known is the Battle of Crimea, a battle that Russia ultimately lost. The outcome isn't what I want to highlight here, but rather that Russia spent years and roughly half a million lives until it surrendered.
In conflicts that Russia deems necessary to its survival--against Napoleon, the Brits and the French, the Germans, Hitler--the Russians will fight until they simply cannot fight any longer.
Do not expect the current war in Ukraine to be any different.
#history #geography
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